Generic at-risk windows mislabel healthy buyers
Many playbooks say “no order in 90 days means at risk.” That can work for replenishment brands. It is wrong for mattresses, furniture, or seasonal gear. Label a healthy annual buyer as churned and you will blast them with the wrong offer.
Start with your median order cycle
Look at repeat buyers. Measure the gap in days between consecutive orders. The middle value of those gaps is your median order cycle: a realistic “normal wait” for your catalog.
Example: if the median cycle is 22 days, someone silent for 44 days (about 2×) may be at risk, and 66 days (about 3×) may be churned. If the median is 140 days, those same multipliers stretch into months, which is correct for big-ticket goods.
How to use the cycle in practice
- Active: within about one cycle of the last order
- At risk: past your active window, still inside a longer quiet window
- Churned: past that longer window
- VIP: protect high spenders from crude churn labels when they buy rarely but spend a lot
Auto defaults vs Manual tuning
If you are just starting, Auto defaults are fine. When Auto feels too tight or too loose, switch to Manual rules tied to your cycle. Customer Story calculates baseline median order cycle from your orders and lets Growth and Scale plans customize multipliers. Details live in the merchant segmentation guide.
Install Customer Story to see whether your quiet buyers are truly late for your rhythm, not someone else's calendar.